Update, 1/25/24: At bottom, I’ve updated the table in this post to reflect enrollment totals as of the end of OEP 2024 in HealthCare.gov states, which CMS released yesterday. The CMS release pegs the “unwinding” total of marketplace enrollees — those who had transitioned from Medicaid as of Dec. 31 — at 2.4 million. That means that the September unwinding totals used below to assess the unwinding’s impact on enrollment growth in different states represent about 1/3 of the year-end total. The 2.4 million “unwinding” tally suggests that more than half of new enrollment in HealthCare.gov states in OEP 2024 (4.2 million) came from Medicaid.
Hey Andrew, thanks for this amazing article! One thing I'm confused about is whether there is still a pool of uninsured individuals coming off of Medicaid who are QHP eligible. This has always been a feature of Medicaid churn. The numbers from the MCOs on their retention (at most 30% including Medicaid renewal) don't seem to add up with the number of policies and transitions that CMS is reporting. What do you think? Sorry if this is a silly question, just wrapping my head around numbers I'm newer to interpreting.
Hey Andrew, thanks for this amazing article! One thing I'm confused about is whether there is still a pool of uninsured individuals coming off of Medicaid who are QHP eligible. This has always been a feature of Medicaid churn. The numbers from the MCOs on their retention (at most 30% including Medicaid renewal) don't seem to add up with the number of policies and transitions that CMS is reporting. What do you think? Sorry if this is a silly question, just wrapping my head around numbers I'm newer to interpreting.