Update, 1/25/24: At bottom, I’ve updated the table in this post to reflect enrollment totals as of the end of OEP 2024 in HealthCare.gov states, which CMS released yesterday.
Hey Andrew, thanks for this amazing article! One thing I'm confused about is whether there is still a pool of uninsured individuals coming off of Medicaid who are QHP eligible. This has always been a feature of Medicaid churn. The numbers from the MCOs on their retention (at most 30% including Medicaid renewal) don't seem to add up with the number of policies and transitions that CMS is reporting. What do you think? Sorry if this is a silly question, just wrapping my head around numbers I'm newer to interpreting.
Vishnu, sorry for the delay here. I'm not aware of "numbers from the MCOs" -- do MCOs report transitions to marketplace enrollment? I imagine that the moratorium on Medicaid disenrollments froze a good part of the pool that would have previously churned into the marketplace, and that the unwinding has maybe doubled or more than doubled that flow, but I'm not following as to which sets of numbers don't add up.
Hey Andrew, thanks for this amazing article! One thing I'm confused about is whether there is still a pool of uninsured individuals coming off of Medicaid who are QHP eligible. This has always been a feature of Medicaid churn. The numbers from the MCOs on their retention (at most 30% including Medicaid renewal) don't seem to add up with the number of policies and transitions that CMS is reporting. What do you think? Sorry if this is a silly question, just wrapping my head around numbers I'm newer to interpreting.
Vishnu, sorry for the delay here. I'm not aware of "numbers from the MCOs" -- do MCOs report transitions to marketplace enrollment? I imagine that the moratorium on Medicaid disenrollments froze a good part of the pool that would have previously churned into the marketplace, and that the unwinding has maybe doubled or more than doubled that flow, but I'm not following as to which sets of numbers don't add up.