Andrew Sullivan links to a "prescient" Sept 2006 piece by Mario Loyola in NRO titled "The Center Holding: Strength in the Iraqi Government"(free reprint with signup here). At a time when violence in Iraq was at its peak, Loyola argued that the central government was gaining power and cohesion; he forecast that the Sunni insurgency would peter out, that the militias would gradually be coopted or integrated in the central government, that Iran's influence would remain limited and fragmented, and that the Kurds would settle for autonomy without seeking independence.
Was Iraq cohering before the surge?
Was Iraq cohering before the surge?
Was Iraq cohering before the surge?
Andrew Sullivan links to a "prescient" Sept 2006 piece by Mario Loyola in NRO titled "The Center Holding: Strength in the Iraqi Government"(free reprint with signup here). At a time when violence in Iraq was at its peak, Loyola argued that the central government was gaining power and cohesion; he forecast that the Sunni insurgency would peter out, that the militias would gradually be coopted or integrated in the central government, that Iran's influence would remain limited and fragmented, and that the Kurds would settle for autonomy without seeking independence.